Economics Seminar（2016-08）

Topic: Trade policy uncertainty and exports: evidence from china’s wto accession

Speaker: Zhiyuan Li, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

Time:Tuesday, May.31, 2:00-3:30pm

Place: Room 217, Guanghua Building 2

Abstract:

This paper studies how reduction in trade policy uncertainty affects firm export decisions. Using afirm-product level dataset on Chinese exports to the United States and the European Union in the yearssurrounding China’s WTO accession, we provide strong evidence that reduction in trade policy uncertaintysimultaneously induced firm entries to and firm exits from export activity within fine product-levelmarkets. In addition, we uncover accompanying changes in export product prices and quality that coincidedwith this reallocation: firms that provided higher quality products at lower prices entered the exportmarket, while firms that had higher prices and provided lower quality products prior to the changes,exited. To explain the simultaneous export entries and exits, as well as the change in product exportprices and quality induced by trade policy uncertainty changes, we provide a model of heterogeneousfirms which incorporates trade policy uncertainty, tracing the effects of the changes in policy uncertaintyon firm-level payoffs and the resulting selection effects which apply to new entrants and incumbents.

Introduction:

Zhiyuan LI is an Associate Professor in the School of Economics at Shanghai University of Finance and Economics (SUFE), China. He obtained Ph.D degree in 2010 in the Department of Economics at the University of California, Davis (UC Davis). Professor Li’s research specializes in international trade. His current research interest is on topics related to welfare gains, firm dynamics, and production organization associated with offshoring and trade liberalization. He has published a few papers at internationally renowned journals such asReview of Economics and Statistics, Journal of International EconomicsandJournal of Economic Behavior and Organizationetc.. His research is widely cited and one of his recent working papers has been cited by the latest NBER REPORTER (2016 Spring).